Supplies are meeting world's demand for crops

www.agrinews-pubs.com
Tom Doran
2010-01-25

WASHINGTON — Record soybean exports were projected in the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture world agriculture supply and demand report.

U.S. soybean exports were raised to a new high of 1.375 billion bushels, a 35 million bushel increase over the previous month.

The increase was led by strong sales and shipments to China and several other markets, including Taiwan, Thailand, Egypt, and Canada.

U.S. export sales have benefited from tight competitor supplies resulting from last year’s drought-reduced South American crop.

The projected soybean crush was raised 15 million bushels to 1.710 billion reflecting increased soybean meal exports.

Soybean ending stocks are projected at 245 million bushels, down 10 million from last month.

Despite increased crush, soybean oil production is reduced due to a lower extraction rate. With use unchanged, soybean oil stocks are projected at 2.152 billion pounds, down 155 million from last month.

The report was released the same day the USDA announced record-setting soybean production.

U.S. soybean production is estimated at a record 3.361 billion bushels, up 42 million bushels from last month based on higher yields. The soybean yield is estimated at a record 44.0 bushels per acre.

The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2009/10 is projected at $8.90 to $10.40 per bushel, up 15 cents on both ends of the range.

Soybean oil prices are forecast at 36 to 39 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $265 to $315 per short ton, up 5 dollars on both ends of the range.

Soybeans stored in all positions on Dec. 1, 2009, totaled 2.34 billion bushels, up 3 percent from 12 months ago. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 1.3 billion bushels, up 4 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.11 billion bushels, are up 2 percent from last December.

The indicated disappearance for September to November 2009 totaled 1.16 billion bushels, up 30 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Global oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at 431.6 million tons, up 3.0 million from last month. Increased soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production are only partly offset by reduced sunflower seed and rapeseed production.

Global soybean production is projected at a record 253.4 million tons, up 3.1 million. Adding to increased U.S. soybean production, Brazil’s soybean crop is projected at a record 65 million tons, up 2 million.

The increase is mainly due to higher area reflecting favorable planting conditions and recent survey data from the Brazilian government.

The USDA increased stock estimates for corn after a record-setting production year. The 2009 corn crop is now estimated at 13.151 billion bushels, 230 million larger than the November forecast and 113 million larger than the previous record crop of 2007.

U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2009/10 was raised based on higher estimated corn and sorghum production.

Corn feed and residual is projected 150 million bushels higher based on September-November disappearance as indicated by the December 1 stocks.

Partly offsetting is a 10-million-bushel reduction in food, seed, and industrial use reflecting lower-than-expected September-November shipments of high fructose corn syrup.

Corn ending stocks are projected at 1.764 billion bushels, up 89 million bushels and the largest since 2005/06. However, because of higher usage, stocks as a percentage of use are down year-to-year at 13.5 percent compared with 13.9 percent for 2008/09.

About 5.6 billion bushels of corn is projected for feed, 4.2 billion for ethanol and co-products, and 1.3 billion for other domestic uses. The U.S. will export 2.1 billion bushels of corn.

The 2009/10 marketing-year average corn farm price is projected at $3.40 to $4 per bushel, up 15 cents on both ends of the range based on reported prices to date and continued strength in futures and cash market values.

The USDA also reported that corn stocks were up 9 percent over December 2008. Corn stored in all positions on Dec. 1, 2009, totaled 10.9 billion bushels.

Of the total stocks, 7.45 billion bushels are stored on farms, up 15 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.49 billion bushels, are down 3 percent from 2008.

Global coarse grain production for 2009/10 is projected 4.7 million tons higher this month with higher corn, barley, and mixed grain output more than offsetting lower output for sorghum, millet, and oats.

World corn production is raised 6.3 million tons mostly reflecting the record U.S. crop. Argentina corn production also is raised 1.0 million tons as widespread rainfall encouraged producers to extend the planting season and abundant soil moisture raises prospects for yields.

Corn production is lowered 0.5 million tons for Mexico with harvested area reduced on reports that drought during July damaged crops in the southern plateau more extensively than previously thought.

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected 76 million bushels higher this month with lower expected domestic use and exports.

Feed and residual use is projected 20 million bushels lower as December 1 stocks, reported in the January Grain Stocks, indicate lower-than-expected disappearance during September-November.

Exports are projected 50 million bushels lower reflecting the slow pace of shipments and sales and strong foreign competition as relatively high prices limit opportunities for U.S. wheat.

At the projected 825 million bushels, 2009/10 exports would be the lowest since 1971/72. Export projections are lowered for hard red winter, soft red winter, and hard red spring wheat.

The projected marketing-year average farm price is narrowed 5 cents on both ends of the range to $4.70 to $5 per bushel.


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